Belarus has achieved foreign trade surplus by restricting imports and devaluing rouble
In January 2015, Belarus marked foreign trade surplus – its highest since July 2012. Devaluation of the Belarusian rouble and a ban on price increases have led to a decrease in imports to Belarus. This result is only temporary – soon the trade balance deficit will return.
In January 2015, trade balance surplus was USD 244.7 million. Imports of goods decreased to USD 1821.9 million or by 36.5% compared with January 2014. This is the minimum value since January 2011. Exports have reduced too – supply fell to its lowest since January 2012. Imports have reduced more rapidly than exports, which led to trade balance surplus.
Imports have fallen thanks to devaluation of the Belarusian rouble and tighter pricing policy. Wage cuts have resulted in reduced imports of cars from Russia. In December 2014, Belarusians imported 48,000 vehicles from Russia and in January 2015 – only 8000. Consumer spending has reduced, entailing a reorientation towards greater domestic consumption of food. Price control introduced by the government has resulted in some exporters seizing operations. Many companies have reviewed downwards their investment programmes for 2015, which has already led to a decrease in imports of equipment. Compared with December 2014, in January 2015, imports of machinery fell by USD 500 million.
Foreign trade improvements are unstable. The positive results of January have led to a sharp reduction in the range of products and problems in both, retail and whole sales. Refining and fertilizer production are among relatively stable industries in Belarus. Devaluation was insufficient to solve the problems in the food industry, mechanical engineering and rubber industry. In addition, businesses continue to have troubles with supplies to the Russian market.
Diversification of exports is now a priority task for the government, but developing new markets requires considerable time and might take years. In the short term, trade balance surplus is unlikely to sustain, however, in 2015, foreign trade performance should improve as compared with 2014 due to the economic slowdown in Belarus.
Trade balance surplus was only achieved thanks to devaluation and tough restrictive measures against imports introduced by the government. Import volumes might be restored and trade balance deficit might return to the level of USD 50-150 million per month.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.