Repairs at Naftan will worsen economic statistics in short term
The situation has not changed
Naftan oil refinery will undergo a planned overhaul from mid-August to mid-September 2014, i.e. two-thirds of the refinery will stop working.
The refinery last had a major overhaul in September-October 2011. A break in Naftan’s operations will imply reduced oil imports and oil products export, wholesale trade figures will be corrected downwards, the industrial production index in the Vitebsk region may drop below the August 2013 standard, leading to slower growth and GRP dynamics. However, the overhaul will have only short-term effects, and the Vitebsk region will improve its performance by as soon as October 2014.
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Once a week, in coordination with a group of prominent Belarusian analysts, we provide analytical commentaries on the most topical and relevant issues, including the behind-the-scenes processes occurring in Belarus. These commentaries are available in Belarusian, Russian, and English.
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