Assisted by Kremlin, Minsk upholds its role in ensuring regional security
Official Minsk continues to strengthen its international position in ensuring regional security by providing a platform for negotiations. The Kremlin has de facto supported Belarus by insisting on holding the Normandy Four talks in Belarus’ capital whereas the Belarusian leadership was still subject to Western sanctions. Official Minsk is likely to increase pressure on the West to lift the sanctions against the Belarusian authorities and to obtain assistance from international financial institutions.
On February 11th – 12th, Minsk hosted 16-hour talks between the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, Germany and France. The Normandy Four talks resulted in a declaration in support of a package of measures to implement the Minsk agreements. On the same day the declaration was signed by the participants of the Trilateral Contact Group on Ukraine (Ukraine – Russia – OSCE) and Donbas separatists. The parties have agreed on ceasefire as of 12 am (Kyiv time) on February15th, withdrawal of foreign troops from the Ukrainian territory, withdrawal of heavy weapons within 14 days and release of hostages in five days, as well as unconditional access by Ukraine and her international partners to the affected areas in order to provide humanitarian assistance. Neither these talks, nor the previous ones had led to a peace agreement over eastern Ukraine albeit had somewhat relieved tension for a while.
Analysts have differently assessed the results of the Normandy Four talks in Minsk. Most however agreed that official Minsk, which provided a platform for negotiations, was the ultimate beneficiary of the meeting. The meeting of such a level with the participation of EU leaders was held in Minsk for the first time in Belarus’ modern history. In addition, amid the conflict in Ukraine, the Belarusian leadership has de facto managed to get around the European sanctions. The initiative to hold talks in Minsk belonged to President Putin, who asked his Belarusian counterpart to provide a platform for the high-level peace talks.
In addition, the Russian media and Russian audiences have praised the President Lukashenko’s peacekeeping role. The leading Russian TV channels underscored the positive role of President Lukashenko in the conflict resolution in Eastern Ukraine in their reports.
The president also gave a 15-minute interview to the Russian channels NTV and Russia 1. In the interview, the Belarusian leader reaffirmed his commitment to the Eurasian integration, and commented on his ‘rapprochement’ with the EU: “I would not say that we have somehow improved the relations with them. I do not cherish any hopes there. Frankly and honestly speaking, I would like to say that I am no longer in the age when people rush or make sharp turns and so on. I have seen enough of this. So that, you know, one feels dizzy ... In fact, why should I feel dizzy? Is it because I was asked to organise this event? Get real! I do not overestimate Belarus’ role or my own role in this, as usual. I am not exaggerating. So if you think that I would use this as an excuse to turn toward somewhere else, forget about it".
Prior to the Normandy Four talks, leaders of the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donbass People’s Republics issued a statement in which they proposed to send CSTO peacekeeping forces in the region. Previously, President Lukashenko talked about the Belarusian peacekeeping troops’ participation in stabilising the situation in Eastern Ukraine. However, official Minsk is unlikely to go as far as putting this idea into action due to its extreme unpopularity among the population and a deep divide in Belarusian society over the conflict in Ukraine.
The Belarusian Foreign Ministry is likely to step up its activity in order to lift Western sanctions against the Belarusian leadership completely.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.