Opposition uses parliamentary election campaign to strengthen its position
The 2012 parliamentary elections are considered as a political, rather than an electoral campaign by all opposition forces. Apparently, no one cherishes hopes for entering the Parliament. Those parties and movements that decided to participate in the election campaign, as well as those that decided to boycott it, set the aim of the campaign as strengthening their positions in the political field. The \"moderate\" ones aim to do this through the expansion of the electoral support, and the \"radical\" ones – through strengthening their position among the traditional opposition-minded voters. At the same time, some political forces use the campaign as a part of long-term plans, seeking to increase their capacity to participate in Presidential and local elections in 2014-2015.
The 2012 parliamentary elections have become a catalyst for structuring the \"constructive\" and \"confrontational\" movements of the Belarusian opposition, who have different visions of the transformation process of the Belarusian regime and forms to influence it.
At the moment there is a convergence of views among the organizations of the “moderate” opposition, which become the basis for a long-term cooperation. The \"moderate\" wing of the opposition are represented by the \"Movement \"For Freedom \"(MFF, Milinkevich), the campaign \"Tell the Truth\" (TT, Nyaklyaeu) and the Belarusian Popular Front Party (BPF). These dominate in the coalition of six leading opposition forces, formed during 2011. In the parliamentary elections of 2012 the positions of MFF and TT coincide and provide for a full participation of activists of these organizations in the elections 2012.
The BPF has traditionally been a MFF partner and supported its initiatives. Unlike For Freedom and Tell the Truth! the party status requires the BPF to clearly formulate its official position on the participation format in the election campaign. The BPF made a decision on the conditional participation of their candidates in the parliamentary campaign with their withdrawal from the election race on the eve of early voting. However, the structures of For Freedom and the BPF are closely integrated, and many candidates who will run for Parliamentary elections represent both opposition groups.
In turn, many leaders who plan to run as Tell the Truth candidates, have, in the majority of cases, a dual loyalty to other opposition parties, mainly the United Civil Party (UCP). UCP, the Belarusian Christian Democracy (BCD), the Belarusian Party of the United Left \"Just World\" and the Belarusian Social Democratic Party (Hromada), whose central authorities decided on a conditional participation in the parliamentary campaign.
There is not yet a single coordination center among the opposition groups that use the tactics of boycotting the parliamentary campaign. The \"confrontational\" movement of the opposition is represented by the organization committee for the creation of the \"Belarusian Movement,\" the civil campaign \"European Belarus\", the Conservative Christian Party BPF, the \"Young Front\", the Belarusian Social Democratic Hromada (BSDH) and other network initiatives.
Using harsh repression against the leaders of respective organizations, the authorities have managed to significantly weaken the opposition structures, that imply a radical rhetoric. The best-known and respected representative of the movement, Andrei Sannikov, who is based on the structures of the \"Belarusian Movement”, the civil campaign \"European Belarus\" and the BSDH, was released from prison in April this year. Since then, however, he has refrained from making plans regarding his participation in the political life of the country.
Another respected representative of the \"radical\" opposition, Nikolai Statkevich, is in custody, and even if released, he will most likely be unable to participate in the election campaign in 2015.
Despite the great support potential among the radical opposition part, the probability of the return of Zenon Paznyak, the legend of the national liberation movement of the early 1990s and the leader of the Conservative Christian Party BPF, in political exile now, remains quite low.
At the same time, there has been no clear vision of the strategy for the Presidential campaign of 2015 in the actions of the other two major opposition organizations - \"Just World\", formerly Communists), and BCD, which are represented by a coalition of six leading opposition forces. However, the unification of these forces is possible around the UCP leader Lebedzko.
The rapid increase in wages has led to a decline in the ratio between labour productivity and real wages to one. Previously, the rule was that enterprises, in which the state owned more than 50% of shares in the founding capital, were not allowed increasing salaries if this ratio was equal to or less than one. The authorities are unlikely to be able to meet the wage growth requirement without long-term consequences for the economy. Hence, the government is likely to contain wage growth for the sake of economic growth.
According to Belstat, In January – August 2017, GDP growth was 1.6%. The economic revival has led to an increase in wages. In August, the average monthly wage was BYN 844.4 or USD 435, i.e. grew by 6.6% since early 2017, adjusted for inflation. This has reduced the ratio between labour productivity and real wages from 1.03 in January 2017 to 1 in the first seven months of 2017. This parameter should not be less than 1, otherwise, the economy starts accumulating imbalances.
The need for faster growth in labour productivity over wage growth was stated in Decree No 744 of July 31st, 2014. The decree enabled wages growth at state organizations and organizations with more than 50% of state-owned shares only if the ratio between growth in labour productivity and wages was higher than 1. Taking into account the state's share in the economy, this rule has had impact on most of the country's key enterprises. In 2013 -2014 wages grew rapidly, which resulted in devaluation in 2014-2015.
Faster wage growth as compared with growth in labour productivity carries a number of risks. Enterprises increase cost of wages, which subsequently leads to a decrease in the competitiveness of products on the domestic and foreign markets. In construction, wholesale, retail trade, and some other industries the growth rate of prime cost in 2017 outpaces the dynamics of revenue growth. This is likely to lead to a decrease in profits and a decrease in investments for further development. Amid wage growth, the population is likely to increase import consumption and reduce currency sales, which would reduce the National Bank's ability to repay foreign and domestic liabilities.
The Belarusian government is facing a dilemma – either to comply with the president’s requirement of a BYN 1000 monthly wage, which could lead to new economic imbalances and could further affect the national currency value, or to suspend the wage growth in order to retain the achieved economic results. That said, the first option bears a greater number of negative consequences for the nomenclature.
Overall, the rapid growth in wages no longer corresponds the pace of economic development. The government is likely to retain the economic growth and retrain further growth in wages. Staff reshuffles are unlikely to follow the failure to meet the wage growth requirement.