President Lukashenko is after nomenclature’s support
President Lukashenko will use the local elections to strengthen the nomenclature’s loyalty by giving them hope for greater influence in politics. The issue of creating the ‘Party of Power’ in Belarus has been raised from time to time, most often ahead of the national election campaigns. However, having such a party would be at odds with the current cult-of-personality system, which could only be transformed following a serious systemic crisis.
President Alexander Lukashenko, when appointing local executives, said that he was not against if a leading pro-governmental political party emerged in Belarus.
For a while now, President Lukashenko has been mulling over setting up the ‘Party of Power’, which would allow him to ensure loyalty of mid- and low-ranking officials. It is worth noting that in recent years, mid- and low level executive bodies have suffered from staff shortages and poor management, which, for example, resulted in derailed economic modernization plans.
Leaders of the ‘Belaya Rus’ quango do not hide their ambitions to transform the organization into a political party. As a rule, Lukashenko’s statements about the need to institutionalize the nomenclature’s interests coincide with national political campaigns or with the deepening socio-economic crisis.
President Lukashenko authorized the establishment of ‘Belaya Rus’ in 2004. The aim of its existence was to support him during the referendum to remove quantitative restrictions on presidential terms. Belaya Rus’ first HQs were in the Grodno region, considered as one of the most rebellious regions.
De facto, the issue of ‘Belaya Rus’’ transformation into a political party appears on the agenda each time before election campaigns start. However, as soon as the political cycle completes its round, the President gradually loses his interest in the ‘Party of Power’. In addition, the ‘Belaya Rus’ issue often coincides with Belarus resuming her Western policy.
Nevertheless, despite some signs of crisis in the governance, the ruling elite have full control over the situation in Belarus. President Lukashenko remains the most influential politician and his electoral rating remains at 34.8%.
Meanwhile, ‘Belaya Rus’ is not an institution which has a significant impact on people’s moods. According to IISEPS’ December poll, only 6.6% of the population would vote for Belaya Rus candidates, even fewer than for the ‘Tell the Truth!’ or ‘For Freedom’ movement candidates.
President Lukashenko will continue to delay the creation of the ‘Party of Power’ in Belarus, being careful not to delegate any authority to nomenclature or create any alternative sources of power. In times of crisis, President Lukashenko will rely on the use of force. However, ahead of the presidential campaign, the President will use various means to enhance the nomenclature’s loyalty, including populist rhetoric about the creation of the ‘Party of Power’.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.