GDP growth behind the economic imbalances
On March 13th, 2013 Statistics Ministry reported about 4.4% GDP growth in January-February 2013.
Against the background of the industrial production slowdown in Belarus, the government continues insisting on the planned GDP growth. GDP growth is secured by changed calculation methodology and the usual means’ application. Artificial heating of the economy results in increased economic imbalances and a possible repetition of the 2011 economic crisis.
Industry generates over one-third of the Belarus’ economy added value. In the first two months in 2013 industrial production decreased by 0.4% compared with in the same period in 2012. Industry cannot help the government to achieve the planned GDP growth rate at 8.5% in 2013. Therefore GDP will be growing due to investment in fixed assets and equipment and due to warehouse stocks growth.
In January 2013, the warehouse stocks increased by BYR 5 trillion, enabling GDP growth: the unsold output was taken into account when calculating GDP by production. In 2012, the methodology for calculating net taxes on products was clarified, allowing for the calculation of industrial subsidies and excluding them from the subsidies on products, thereby increasing the GDP. In February 2013 investment in fixed assets increased significantly – both, due to increased procurement of equipment, construction and installation works, and due to the changes in the calculation methodology. Wholesale trade has gone up due to the resumed sales of potash fertilizers – regardless of the reduced contract price – only supplies’ volumes are calculated.
February socio-economic indicators show an economic slowdown. Freight traffic and retail sales have reduced, agriculture is facing certain problems. Against this background, the industrial modernization looks more like a race: who spends the allocated funds in the shortest possible time. Investment import increases, deteriorating Belarus’ payments balance. The reduced cost of loans will increase the demand for the cheap national currency and will heat the inflation.
Thus, the government chose to repeat its mistakes of 2009-2010. Instead of a balanced growth, GDP growth rates will be achieved by any means, leading to the inevitable result. GDP growth based on domestic demand requires significant investment. But the investment conditions in Belarus are not the most attractive. Therefore, in order to avoid the repetition of the 2011 crisis, the government should change the strategy.
According to Belstat, in August 7,600 people were dismissed, including 4,800 civil servants. Dismissals of civil servants were due to the optimisation in the public administration by up to 30%. Some civil servants would retain their job however would lose the status of a civil servant. Vacancies on the labour market are likely to reduce in number, thanks to the optimisation, the state administration would increase wages for public servants. The payroll fund for retained employees is likely to increase and some former state employees are likely to get jobs in affiliated organizations. The optimisation of the state apparatus should complete by January 1st, 2018, and some former civil servants are likely to join the ranks of the unemployed.