Another blow to Prime Minister Myasnikovich
On October 19, the website “Belaruspartisan” published information from an anonymous source from the Presidential Administration which brings one to conclude that President Lukashenko heavily criticized Myasnikovich in his presence.
This information leak about the sharp criticism of the Prime Minister by the President only confirms that the former is assessed by the latter as “a lame duck”. However, Lukashenko is interested in connecting the resignation of the Prime Minister with a good reason, such as potential complications on the foreign exchange market. The anonymous material seems to be very realistic. On behalf of President Lukashenko, in an aggressive manner, Myasnikovich is criticized for inappropriate performance of construction works in the town of Gorky before the annual Dazhynki celebration.
“How can such a bungling of the builders be explained? First, the tiles in the pavement got broken, now I am told that mould appeared in the newly built hall of residence. We spent almost 3 million dollars on making improvements in Gorky and now the fungus is eating it all up? Every week you were reporting how improvement works proceeded, so where is the result? The guests have left and to hell with everything? Go to Gorky at once. If you can’t build properly, then lick the mould off with the governor using your tongues and lay the tiles anew. I have the impression that the government decided to bugger off. I guess that I will have to help you and then you will march at Bangalor square with our fifth column. You must inform me by the end of the week about the reasons for this bungling at the construction sites. All those who are guilty must be severely punished”.
The most remarkable thing in this story is the very fact that information has been leaked to independent media about a scandalous conversation between the president and the Prime Minister, namely such a detailed quotation. Even if the quotation is not authentic, the fact that it became public shows that in Lukashenko’s milieu there is a group that wants Myasnikovich to resign. By doing so, they diminish his influence and disgrace him. It is also worth noting that during 2012, Myasnikovich’s cabinet has been consistently weakened when ministers were appointed to other posts.
Nevertheless, to fire Myasnikovich, Lukashenko needs a more reasonable cause connected with the government’s inability to fulfill their obligations. Most likely, the cause will be failure to meet forecast indicators of economic growth, in particular, potential problems with the exchange rate of the Belarusian ruble. Thus, at a public meeting on October 15, Lukashenko announced that he was satisfied with positive improvement of the situation on the foreign exchange market and required the Prime Minister to consolidate this success.
The paradox of the situation with the highly probable resignation of Myasnikovich is that the president is objectively interested in the (short-term) destabilization of the economy, since it would allow him to shift responsibility and blame the government for further problems as well as to finish reshuffling the cabinet. At the same time, Lukashenko is tied by his promise to raise the average monthly wages in the country to USD 500 by the end of the year, which gives Myasnikovich time to restore his influence.
The Labour and the Tax Ministries are considering the possibility to include persons engaged in some economic activity without forming a legal entity in the social security system. When the decree No 337 comes into effect, the number of private entrepreneurs is likely to reduce due to the possibility of reducing the tax burden when switching to a tax payment as an individual. 95% of self-employed, including PE, pay insurance premiums on the basis of the minimum wage. The number of self-employed citizens is expected to increase, the number of insurance contributions to the pension system from PE will decrease, the number of citizens who will pay a fee to finance government spending will decrease by several tens. Self-employed citizens have the alternative not to pay social security fees and save resources for future pensions, which, given the gradual restriction by the state of pension requirements could be a more long-sighted option.