The Federation of Trade Unions and the "Belaya Rus" will be the main competitors in the parliamentary campaign
On 9 July, 110 district election commissions which will operate during the Parliamentary election campaign in September were set up.
The formation of district election commissions went according to plan with no sign that the upcoming election campaign will differ significantly from the 2008 campaign. A much greater influence on election outcome is exerted by local election commissions, which will be formed in early August.
According to the estimates of Belarusian human rights activists, minor progress has been observed at this stage of the campaign: in 2012 the proportion of the opposition in district election commissions rose to 3.3% versus 2.2% in 2008. This could be explained by the increased activity of opposition parties which have nominated 199 representatives against 118 in district commissions in 2008.
However, pro-governmental public organizations remain the most active and successful ones in nominating their representatives. Thus, the Federation of Trade Unions of Belarus has nominated 279 members, 206 of which were included in the commissions (or 14.4% of the composition of all commissions.) The public association \"Belaya Rus\" has nominated 110 members (106 of them included, or 7.4%), the Belarusian Republican Youth Union has nominated 108 members (86 on, or 6%).
As a result, namely these three organizations are leaders in terms of representation of their members in district election commissions.
It can be concluded from this fact that the main struggle for influence in the campaign will take place between the Federation of Trade Unions and the \"White Russia\", which have repeatedly stated about their desire to play a more important role in the government policy of Belarus (specially on political plans of the \"Belaya Rus\", see the previous issue of monitoring).
In this case, the formation of local election commissions, to be completed by 8 August 8, will become the next step in this confrontation. Traditionally, the outcome of elections in Belarus is determined to not by district, but by local election commissions, which are directly involved in vote count and report the results to the district. Therefore, a more accurate prediction of the likely outcome of the campaign can be made after 8 August.
During searches of social and "green" activists and anarchists, law enforcement has seized computers, mobile phones and publications. The authorities have also exerted additional pressure on supporters of unauthorized street protests and independent lawyers, who represented defendants in the White Legion case. The security services have stepped up the persecution of opponents before the street protests announced by the opposition. Apparently, the Belarusian authorities aspire that participants in street protests would reduce in number and that the low interest of the population to socio-political agenda before the local election campaign would retain.